Kentucky Derby 2016 Afterthoughts

1.) Nyquist: I called it. I doubted him before on the distance and he proved me wrong in the Florida Derby. He’s a classy horse with a good temperament. I think he just has the heart to win. Congrats on becoming the 142nd Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist. The colt is now unbeaten in eight races and he joins 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense as one of the only two horses to win both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. I think he’s got this come Preakness.

Nyquist grazing the morning after his Kentucky Derby win.

2.) Exaggerator: I knew he would be up there and picked him to run third. I used to not care for the horse and thought he was overrated, but he’s grown on me. I was very impressed with his romp in the sloppy Santa Anita Derby. Watch out come Belmont. He’s got a fast late kick to him and ran a great second. The colt came from 15th, fought through traffic, and was gaining on Nyquist to finish 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Exaggerator also finished 3 1/4 length in front of the third place finisher.

3.) Gun Runner: Gun Runner hadn’t done much wrong. He won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby this year and his only loss was at two in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on a sloppy track. I knew he was good and thought he might run fifth or sixth, but I should have had more faith in him. He’s a better horse than I gave him credit for.

Gun Runner schooling May 5

4.) Mohaymen: I picked Mohaymen to run second and put a line through his disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby. He had been unbeaten up until then, showing talent at two and improvement at three. His Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth wins looked so easy for him, so the Florida Derby was just puzzling. Picking him for second was a little gutsy. He’s a good horse but wasn’t sure he would get it done. He did good to finish a head behind Gun Runner though. I would have liked to have seen him closer to the pace in the Derby. I think settling in 13th out of the gate hurt his chances and he spent the entire race working his way up instead of saving a surge for the homestretch. He will skip the Preakness and Belmont to aim for the Travers in August. I hope he has a couple races to prepare before then.

5.) Suddenbreakingnews: I like this gelding. He’s a deep closer that was fun to watch in the Oaklawn Derby preps. I thought he would finish around fifth or sixth, but wouldn’t have minded seeing an upset win from him. He’s a cool horse, I just thought he might have trouble getting through traffic in a 20 horse field. Props to him for only being a nose behind Mohaymen at the finish line. This horse needs to go to the Belmont.

6.) Destin: I like this horse. He had two great races with wins in the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby. His Tampa Bay Derby win was especially impressive when he dueled with stablemate Outwork and pulled ahead to win. I wish he had another Derby prep though instead of so much time off. I don’t know if he was quite prepared for the Kentucky Derby.

7.) Brody’s Cause: At two he won the Breeders’ Futurity and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but his three year old debut was a disappointing seventh in the Tampa Bay Derby. The colt found redemption in the Blue Grass and ran a great race. Again though, being a closer in the Derby can be tough. I expected him to finish about where he did.

8.) Mo Tom: I love the horse. He deserved to finish better, but I didn’t expect him to get up there. After his LeComte win this year, he got stopped hard by jockey Corey Lanerie in the Risen Star when a horse drifted into his path, then again in the Louisiana Derby when Lanerie tried to make a move up the rail when there was no room. Thankfully Lanerie went wide in the Derby. I think this horse is better than he’s shown on paper.

9.) Lani: What an interesting horse. He left before the rest of the horses for the walk over, was the last into the paddock, and was saddled and on the track with the jockey before the others. Is he really that crazy? He didn’t seem like it. I thought he might finish in the middle, so no surprise here. The Preakness is a possibility for him, but not yet decided.

10.) Mor Spirit: Disappointed. I picked him to come in fourth because he always finishes well. I still think he should have been higher than 10th, but what can you do? He didn’t come rolling near the end like I thought he would.

11.) My Man Sam: He ran a good second in the Blue Grass behind Brody’s Cause, but I didn’t expect much from him in the Derby. He’s only had one win in five races, and that was when he broke his maiden. Maybe not enough experience.

12.) Tom’s Ready: He’s had double the races that My Man Sam has, but the same number of wins. He ran second to Mo Tom in the LeComte and second to Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, but I didn’t expect a big run in the Derby from him.

13.) Creator: His Arkansas Derby win showed his improvement. I thought the colt had a shot to run a much better race, but you never know what will happen come Derby day.

Creator schooling May 5

14.) Outwork: He ran a good second to Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby before beating maiden Trojan Nation by a head in the Wood Memorial. I thought he could finish around mid-pack, but ended up a little further back.

15.) Danzing Candy: I like Danzing Candy, but I knew he wouldn’t do too well in the Derby. He’s a fast horse who wants to go out on the lead, and I knew he would be tired out in a tough field of 20.

16.) Trojan Nation: He’s a maiden who got in from a runner up finish in the Wood Memorial (not a bad run though). What did you expect?

17.) Oscar Nominated: His only wins were in a maiden claiming race and a stakes race on the turf, and the Spiral on a synthetic track. Not surprised by this finish at all.

18.) Majesto: His only stakes race before the Kentucky Derby was a second in the Florida Derby behind Nyquist. Again, not much of a surprise here, but he could get better with more races.

19.) Whitmore: He got in with two seconds and a third in the Oaklawn Derby preps, but I didn’t expect too much from this horse either. Didn’t necessarily expect him this far back though.

Whitmore schooling May 5

20.) Shagaf (DNF): He had a pretty good maiden and allowance win before making a slow rally to win the Gotham. He then ran a disappointing fifth in the Wood Memorial. I think his pedigree makes him look better than he really is and I didn’t expect much from him. His jockey pulled him up in the final stretch and did not finish the race. Thankfully the horse was fine, apparently he just didn’t seem completely right.